Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26 2020 | 3320 | 29025 | 115 | 12 | 762 | 920 |
| October 27 2020 | 3442 | 29473 | 121 | 12 | 884 | 988 |
| October 28 2020 | 3531 | 29610 | 123 | 12 | 896 | 1060 |
| October 29 2020 | 3656 | 29817 | 128 | 16 | 982 | 1148 |
| October 30 2020 | 3738 | 30174 | 130 | 16 | 1002 | 1180 |
| October 31 2020 | 3845 | 30345 | 132 | 17 | 1062 | 1287 |
| November 01 2020 | 3960 | 30646 | 137 | 21 | 1110 | 1325 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 4.9 | 4.1% | 46 | 0.4% | 60 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 17.3 | 15% | 166 | 1.22% | 193 | 1.42% |
| 20-29 | 35 | 24.7 | 20.6% | 229 | 1.09% | 285 | 1.36% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 18.3 | 15.3% | 170 | 1.25% | 205 | 1.51% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 12.6 | 11.3% | 125 | 1.19% | 145 | 1.39% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 17.3 | 13.8% | 153 | 1.22% | 175 | 1.39% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 11.6 | 10.9% | 121 | 1.05% | 144 | 1.25% |
| 70+ | 9 | 10.3 | 9% | 100 | 0.96% | 118 | 1.13% |
| All ages | 115 | 116.9 | 100% | 1110 | 1.06% | 1325 | 1.27% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26 2020 | 1533 | 18387 | 56 | 11 | 516 | 700 |
| October 27 2020 | 1581 | 18568 | 57 | 11 | 564 | 722 |
| October 28 2020 | 1685 | 18660 | 59 | 13 | 653 | 798 |
| October 29 2020 | 1789 | 18804 | 64 | 19 | 665 | 830 |
| October 30 2020 | 1865 | 18966 | 65 | 21 | 735 | 848 |
| October 31 2020 | 1939 | 19066 | 67 | 24 | 724 | 922 |
| November 01 2020 | 1958 | 19236 | 67 | 24 | 679 | 926 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.9 | 3.5% | 24 | 0.31% | 33 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 7.7 | 8.8% | 60 | 0.71% | 82 | 0.98% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 9.3 | 11% | 75 | 1.05% | 103 | 1.45% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 12.6 | 16.9% | 115 | 1.37% | 158 | 1.88% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 13.4 | 17.7% | 120 | 1.55% | 155 | 2% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 14.7 | 18% | 122 | 1.26% | 167 | 1.72% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 11.9 | 14.4% | 98 | 1.17% | 132 | 1.57% |
| 70+ | 4 | 7.7 | 9.6% | 65 | 0.91% | 100 | 1.41% |
| All ages | 19 | 80.1 | 100% | 679 | 1.05% | 926 | 1.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26 2020 | 1062 | 11955 | 41 | 6 | 332 | 431 |
| October 27 2020 | 1093 | 12014 | 45 | 6 | 363 | 448 |
| October 28 2020 | 1132 | 12115 | 48 | 7 | 351 | 454 |
| October 29 2020 | 1178 | 12188 | 49 | 7 | 375 | 477 |
| October 30 2020 | 1223 | 12338 | 49 | 7 | 396 | 493 |
| October 31 2020 | 1281 | 12394 | 52 | 7 | 423 | 551 |
| November 01 2020 | 1320 | 12555 | 54 | 7 | 425 | 539 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.3 | 2.8% | 12 | 0.22% | 14 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.3 | 11.3% | 48 | 0.88% | 62 | 1.14% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 5.9 | 14.4% | 61 | 1.35% | 77 | 1.7% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.7 | 13.4% | 57 | 1.05% | 83 | 1.53% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 6.3 | 15.1% | 64 | 1.29% | 82 | 1.65% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 6.6 | 16.2% | 69 | 1.02% | 79 | 1.16% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.7 | 12.9% | 55 | 0.87% | 73 | 1.15% |
| 70+ | 8 | 7.3 | 14.6% | 62 | 0.98% | 72 | 1.14% |
| All ages | 39 | 43.4 | 100% | 425 | 0.94% | 539 | 1.19% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26 2020 | 4103 | 31881 | 86 | 20 | 385 | 537 |
| October 27 2020 | 4187 | 32175 | 87 | 20 | 469 | 600 |
| October 28 2020 | 4256 | 32309 | 89 | 21 | 498 | 651 |
| October 29 2020 | 4366 | 32516 | 90 | 21 | 549 | 709 |
| October 30 2020 | 4473 | 32771 | 91 | 22 | 605 | 755 |
| October 31 2020 | 4550 | 32945 | 92 | 22 | 643 | 832 |
| November 01 2020 | 4608 | 33134 | 93 | 23 | 647 | 850 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.7 | 2.8% | 18 | 0.15% | 20 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 9.6 | 12.1% | 78 | 0.47% | 96 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 17.4 | 24% | 155 | 0.73% | 213 | 1% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 9.7 | 13.3% | 86 | 0.63% | 111 | 0.82% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 12.0 | 15.6% | 101 | 0.74% | 127 | 0.93% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 11.4 | 15.5% | 100 | 0.7% | 134 | 0.94% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 7.4 | 9.1% | 59 | 0.42% | 81 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 7 | 5.7 | 7.7% | 50 | 0.38% | 68 | 0.52% |
| All ages | 58 | 75.0 | 100% | 647 | 0.55% | 850 | 0.72% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26 2020 | 14305 | 235938 | 506 | 48 | 2009 | 2720 |
| October 27 2020 | 14560 | 237168 | 511 | 48 | 2264 | 2867 |
| October 28 2020 | 14929 | 237721 | 517 | 49 | 2420 | 3074 |
| October 29 2020 | 15153 | 238468 | 522 | 50 | 2637 | 3081 |
| October 30 2020 | 15521 | 239629 | 524 | 49 | 2700 | 3225 |
| October 31 2020 | 15839 | 241086 | 532 | 49 | 2718 | 3543 |
| November 01 2020 | 16011 | 242765 | 537 | 49 | 2696 | 3502 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 14.0 | 4.9% | 131 | 0.22% | 174 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 23 | 37.9 | 13.2% | 357 | 0.5% | 446 | 0.63% |
| 20-29 | 43 | 66.0 | 24.8% | 669 | 0.64% | 860 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 43.6 | 16.2% | 438 | 0.57% | 566 | 0.74% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 35.1 | 13.7% | 369 | 0.56% | 492 | 0.75% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 36.6 | 13.1% | 352 | 0.54% | 469 | 0.71% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 19.1 | 7.3% | 196 | 0.36% | 268 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 6 | 17.0 | 6.8% | 184 | 0.37% | 227 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 172 | 269.3 | 100% | 2696 | 0.49% | 3502 | 0.64% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26 2020 | 201049 | 1777892 | 10416 | 1788 | 34863 | 48857 |
| October 27 2020 | 206311 | 1789158 | 10636 | 1852 | 40125 | 50840 |
| October 28 2020 | 210126 | 1795161 | 10810 | 1897 | 40012 | 51548 |
| October 29 2020 | 214996 | 1803465 | 11003 | 1948 | 41105 | 52671 |
| October 30 2020 | 220092 | 1817061 | 11145 | 1972 | 41610 | 53906 |
| October 31 2020 | 225370 | 1826636 | 11374 | 2031 | 42683 | 59184 |
| November 01 2020 | 228863 | 1841205 | 11497 | 2047 | 42763 | 58749 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 141 | 162.9 | 3.7% | 1599 | 0.25% | 2170 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 406 | 459.1 | 10.2% | 4377 | 0.58% | 5860 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 576 | 730.4 | 16.8% | 7186 | 0.95% | 9922 | 1.31% |
| 30-39 | 528 | 693.0 | 15.8% | 6764 | 0.89% | 9323 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 484 | 643.4 | 14.9% | 6357 | 0.91% | 8680 | 1.24% |
| 50-59 | 582 | 721.9 | 16.5% | 7065 | 0.87% | 9754 | 1.2% |
| 60-69 | 421 | 525.4 | 11.9% | 5106 | 0.67% | 7011 | 0.93% |
| 70+ | 355 | 449.1 | 10.1% | 4309 | 0.67% | 6029 | 0.94% |
| All ages | 3493 | 4385.3 | 100% | 42763 | 0.73% | 58749 | 1.01% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126.6 | 141.9 | 136.2 | 116.9 | 44.6 | 30.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143.2 | 80.1 | 46.9 | 36.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119.1 | 43.4 | 25.7 | 31.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71.9 | 58 | 100.1 | 75 | 43.1 | 28% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.1 | 62.8 | 82.8 | 269.3 | 180.9 | 19% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.9 | 77.4 | 131.1 | 4385.3 | 3444.1 | 29.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 12.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.41 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-22 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2048"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges